GDP is intended to stand from Gross Domestic Product, with the “P” meaning the value added (“produced”) in an activity, “D” meaning the whole country and “G” meaning total. There is a problem in defining “value”. It is assumed the activity results in a price determined in part by demand in the market, and that payment is able to be paid by the buyer because somewhere else in the economy the buyer was also adding value (receiving wages, profit or rent). In modern economies, due to the sophistry of “financial products” and the drive to gain commission on loans where payback is divorced from the creditor, churning out product and claiming it is valuable, can turn out to be a hollow claim. Housing bubbles are a clear example.
After GDP data became popularly used to represent a nation’s well-being the common criticism was that important benefits were not counted because they were not transacted in markets and had no price. Housekeeping within a marriage was often used as an example of unpriced service. But now there is another kind of flaw even more misleading. It is goods and services priced in the market which end up not being paid for, and thus by definition are not in demand and should be not considered as “valued” outputs. The property glut is an extreme example.
In a planned economy there were also common examples of factories exhorted to race to meet production targets only to find they had yards full of goods that were not saleable and even not appreciated under forced distribution schemes (because costs could be deducted somehow from real outputs such as harvested grain). To claim these produced goods added value (at listed price) is misleading.
The distinction between doing something and doing something of value needs to be pursued. Housekeeping would seem universally a beneficial service, though typically is unpaid and not accounted for in official GDP data. Deliberately crashing an airliner into remote alps (this is being written 29 March 2015) must be universally agreed as bad (technically, a negative contribution to wellbeing) yet the consequent recovery actions are and should be valued and many millions of dollars.
Again, a comparison could be made between 2 people working at keyboards, one punching keys senselessly and of no value to anyone, whilst the other uses the same effort to either a) play beautiful music or b) write a valuable business plan.
The point to consider is that now GDP is unthinkingly promoted as indicating a positive attribute. GDP creator, Kuznet (1927) warned that GDP should not be used as a measure of well-being, and subsequently its misuses has recurred on a number of occasions. As President of the World Bank 1968-81, Robert McNamara digitized the socio-economic status of nations. The Asian Development Bank was headquartered in Manila based on the Philippine’s exemplary GDP indicators.
On an individual basis, the perception of ourselves by ourselves, and by others, includes some preset notions on judging “action”. “What did you do all day,” asks the stereotype husband on return from “work” where he is cognizant that his pay makes him worthy. The stereotype response is the wife has to detail and justify her actions because they were unpaid.
But whether an action has a price or not is a bad way to make judgements. The high percentage of GDP in Macau attributed to gambling is “good economics” but the social downside that definitely exists is difficult to measure (failed gamblers resort to many negative activities affecting themselves, family, friends and colleagues).
To remove human value judgment it can be edifying to monitor and attempt to quantify, analyze and even pass judgement on a community of ants. One approach could be to track individual ants and see what they “do”, mainly travelling out and carrying food back, or mainly digging and carrying soil away to build tunnels, or carrying soil up for above ground nests. Another approach would be to monitor materials transported in for consumption, or transported out as waste. The “GDP” by whatever details would have some relationship to the overall size of the ant nest structure. What would be a human observer’s conclusion. The ants could survive cycles of weather and other factors? Maybe whether the ants could withstand encroachment from enemies – other ants, predator animals, humans. Not whether the ants were “happy”.
Before the Industrial Revolution, for preparing the “Economic Table” documenting the exchanges of goods and services in rural France (Quesnay 1756) “production” meant producing farm “produce” and “consumption” meant, in the main, eating it, literally consuming it through the mouth. The Economic Table presented the relationship as a zigzag, and later the diagram became institutionalized as a “circular flow” between producers and consumers. It was a hundred years later amongst scientists (Carnot 1824, Mayer 1841, Clausius 1850) that there gradually became a recognition of the First and Second laws of Thermodynamics, and another hundred years transpired before it was pointed out clearly (by an economist, Georgescu-Roegen 1971) that matter and energy are not really produced or consumed, but conserved (First Law), and in a closed system any processed flow degrades the quality of matter and energy (Second Law).
In a system that is not closed, economic actors can process flows of matter and energy, sorting high quality and discarding the low quality. The concept of economic activity in an unbounded environment has become embedded in communal consciousness. In tribal society consuming the goodness of food, benefitting from body maintenance, growth and action, and discarding the waste was done seemingly instinctively. In villages and as they became cities, production and consumption was more organized, and waste disposal though recycling and sewers also evolved.
As communities developed there was natural evolution to exploit cross boundary flows, importing high grades of matter and energy, processing them and exporting the degraded output (either as solids, liquids or gases) outside the border. A further extension saw the dirtier forms of processing taking place outside the borders of a community that was economically developed and only importing the clean high grades of matter and energy.
China is the last place to serve as a factory to the world and its rapid development coincided with and was partially the cause of realization that the global economy is materially closed, with no practicable technology in the next century at least, to import goods or export waste.
Economists and societies’ leaders beholden to the old paradigm have no future in today’s world.
At dinner last night with a PhD student to celebrate her landing a job with a giant state-owned oil company, she confided “I owe this job to Xi Jinping.” That didn’t make sense as surely the President of China had no hand in her appointment as a new start. She went on that 5 of the 8 division chiefs had just gone to jail and they had always appointed new people based on payments and “relationships.” Now candidates were vetted for merit. She had no “connections” but a PhD including a semester at Penn State Uni, and I knew her as a person who would be an asset anywhere. Pleasant news.
The night before key interview she practiced presentation for me
The eve of Chinese New Year and set the scene for the research program ahead. Lunch with professor from Tsinghua Uni. Soy milk as beverage of choice sets the pace for the Y
ear of the Ram
Ram、Sheep、Goat,哪个可以表示羊年?
Chinese New Year:Each new year has an animal, goodbye Year of the Horse, and now we have the Year of the 羊 (pronounced like the English word “young” and written in Chinese Pinyin alphabet as “yang”). The question in English is: Does the word signify Ram, Goat, or Sheep. I will be wishing friends all the best for the Year of the Ram 
2009.1 壮歌德/高雁
预测政治变革的难度远高于对气候变化的预测。一年前，谁将认为美国能源部部长会是诺贝尔物理学奖的得主——一位物理学家和可再生能源的大力倡导者。一个月前，这位多才多艺的科学家在华盛顿还一直都是默默无闻，不被关注。现在，美国即将为12月在哥本哈根举行的《联合国气候变化框架公约》缔约国会议带去对《京都议定书》全新而科学的政治授权，这将大大推动多数国家已经同意的《联合国气候变化框架公约》（UN Framework Convention on Climate Change)的进程。这一举措的回报将是对能源效率，清洁发展机制和教育责任等多方面经济进程的推动。
令人难以置信的是，这种变化的推动力竟然是仍在肆虐的金融危机。谁在一年前预见到金融危机？金融危机是一场市场盘整，它告诉我们什么才是重新回到现实所需要的。
布什是自由市场经济的信徒。但对于自由市场经济有一点需要人们反思。这个理论是由亚当斯密在1776年完成的《国富论》（The Wealth of Nations）中提出的，它阐述了利己主义在社会经济发展中的影响。屠夫和面包师工作的目的是为了他们自己的利益，没有政府的规划，市场便自动生产符合消费者需求的产品。这是布什所理解的自由市场经济。但是，，对亚当市场经济的理解有必要考虑到其提出的背景。亚当在他对经济学做出的贡献之前，就已经因其著作《道德情操论》（The Theory of Moral Sentiments）而名扬天下。事实上，《道德情操论》是其经济理论的先驱。首先，它只是一种理论。其次，假定人们讲道德。第三，假定人们尊重情感。难道亚当可以接受让他人的500亿美元凭空消失的伯纳德·麦道夫（Bernie Madoff）吗？亚当是一个假定人人道德的苏格兰绅士。在《道德情操论》中他假设堕落者最终将离开监狱，但他不会知道两个世纪后的那些人会肆意歪曲他的信条。
从理论上说，货币最初被期望作为商品和服务的等价物使用，以方便易货贸易。但是，纵观历史，尤其是21世纪，货币的真实经济价值已经被拥有数十亿美元的“海市蜃楼”所掩盖，当然，这不可避免的带来崩溃。
奥巴马已经将科学精神和科学的重要性带回到了最能影响世界的经济管理中，美国在过去已经催生出许多杰出的科学家，但他们很少参与政治。第一张地球的照片是在阿波罗飞船准备登月前拍摄的，它促使鲍尔丁在“宇宙飞船”理论中写下一篇“诗歌”式的论文，但是人类应该意识到什么资源可被利用，然后应该丢在何处。从太空俯瞰地球，我们所做的确实还非常有限
奥巴马并不知道他已陷入何种局面，但是有一个被每个化学家都知道，却被政治家，经济学家，金融专家每天宣传反对的事实。事实的真相就存在于守恒定律之中——在全球范围内，“增长”（之物质和能量）是不存在的。英格兰在财富，钻石，黄金和金属方面的增长是以殖民地的牺牲为代价的。此外，在任何工业生产的进程中，“产出”包括经济学家所谓的浪费。只是这种化学家的视角被经济学家和政治家所忽视。他们鼓吹生产进程的“零排放”，这是不可能的，难道广告宣传的每天产生大量尾气的汽车会“改善”空气质量？如今，全球累计有数以十亿吨的排放物¬——有害气体和被排放到河流及土壤中的工业废弃物。显然，我们正在伤害我们共同的家园——这是近200个国家和民族需要共同面对和解的问题。
英语中有一个德文词汇， weltanschauung 的词汇。它被用来解释人们理解事情的方式——视角。它的字面含义是“世界观”。最糟糕的一类人认为拥有财富是他们的权利，他们应该拥有一所大房子，一辆双排的汽车和大量的玩具。在早期的历史中，weltanschauung意味着一个人所看到和所经历的“世界”，而一个狭隘的世界观可能只代表一个社区的观点。看过了鲍尔丁的论文，现在我们明白必须培养地球上居民拥有一个整体的世界观，地球就是一个整体，让我们的地球——脆弱的“宇宙飞船”飞行在“真空”中，沐浴在阳光下。
美国的新兴推动力或许会成为《联合国气候变化框架公约》哥本哈根大会上的积极力量，经过长时间的漠视后，他们将在全球变暖问题上承担与自己地位相称的责任并发挥作用。制止肆无忌惮的消费将被提上议程——与全球气候危机相比，沙漠中拉斯维加斯的喷泉微不足道。当然，世界仍需要技术探索和开发来帮助我们过上不用一年燃烧180一顿化石燃料的体面生活。
正如刚刚被奥巴马提名为吓人拜功科技顾问的John Holdren在华盛顿的一次演讲中总结到的： “没有能源，就没有经济。没有气候，就不存在环境。没有经济和环境，事实上也就没有物质福利，没有民主社会，更没有个人，国家或整个国际安全。问题是一直以来，我们获取能源的方式正在摧毁我们赖以生存的环境气候.这是问题的根本。
2008.1文/壮歌德 （John Coulter） 翻译/王卓妮
中国正在开辟一条理解和调整经济发展的新道路。新一代的科学家汲取了世界各国的发展经验，更明智地应用现代科学的精华来整体解决环境和经济问题。中国1979年以来取得的成就在世界历史上前所未有，中国创记录般的发展赋予其自身以权利和需要，对什么是发展和该如何发展给以崭新的视角。中国《国民经济和社会发展“十一五”规划》记录了全国人民代表大会中央委员会提议采纳科学发展观的战略思想。
发展和力争提高生产的观念，只不过是250年前欧洲工业革命的产物。关注GDP则来源于美国20世纪30年代国家收入调查的试行。这种思路令人兴奋之处在于，它可以监督微观经济个体和企业的收入，并把它们加入到宏观经济情景之中。货币收入等价于生产的产品和服务，从而一国“生产总值”的数额成为衡量财富和福利的简易指标。没有人会拒绝收入增长的吸引。
发展是欧洲工业革命开辟的道路，这条路上，有先进的技术、不断萌芽的科学和信息知识，还有适当的经济解释和分析。这条道路基本是线性上升的趋势，一旦发展道路被科学总结出来，追求发展的国家就会开始相互竞争，争相希望能照搬或超越经济合作与发展组织（OECD）国家的道路。这方面已有著名的成功案例，但是它们在规模和人口密度上，都无法和中国相比。
两个世纪前，经济学的基础被抛弃，当时人们科学地发明了蒸汽机并解释了倒U型抛物线的前半段，即使到了今天，现代经济学界似乎都无法很好地解释这些，有时候也就成了晚间新闻中政客们所津津乐道的话题。但是科学发展至今，的确产生了许多新思想，如原子、能源和热力学定律等。但在这约200年的经济发展中，甚至在曾经是经济辉煌的英国工业城市，所涉及的范围如此有限，以至于当时最具影响力的经济学家这样写道：所有资源都是自然馈赠的礼物，取之不尽、用之不竭。英国所发现的，以及其他OECD国家所照搬的，都是这样一个理念：自然资源的供给链——自然的礼物——可以在全球延伸。从原料到市场销售的精细产品，倘若过程中产生废物，那也是无意的——如损害，或者是偶然的——这又被经济学家们定义为“外部性”。随着生产过程逐渐“污化”，将污染型工业出口就成为理性经济学。
《增长的极限》和《寂静的春天》的出版，使环境问题在20世纪60年代受到关注。老鹰乐队的歌曲“最后的家园”，其歌词追溯了从旧世界、美国东海岸到西海岸，之后开发夏威夷群岛最后一片净土的发展历程，歌词在最后唱道，“我们一定要坚守这片净土，因为再也没有新的疆域。”
西进开发真正结束于亚洲，中国自1980年以来从中获益匪浅。但是31年前老鹰乐队歌词敲响了警钟：再也没有新的疆域。这并不是指地理疆域，而是技术创新和科学新境界。最为贴切的说法是，科学成就必须融入经济发展的崭新概念之中。
物料平衡是指系统输入输出相平衡，它是以热力学第一定律为条件，即物质和能量不能被创造也不能被毁灭，只会从一种形式转化为另一种形式。一吨煤燃烧释放出热能，而热能可以转化为电能。物质平衡探索煤的去向，煤和空气中的氧燃烧，产生1600千克的二氧化碳。中国2006年燃烧了20亿吨的煤。物质平衡理论告诉我们这并不是所谓的偶然“外部性”。
作为反馈，传统经济学勉强提出每吨7美元的碳交易价格，但这还不足以解决中国当前正在发生的事情。其实物质平衡理论并不神秘，它是由克尼斯（Allen Kneese）所开创的环境监督方法。倘若废物并不是随处可见，并没有像现在这样广泛地散落在地球上，那么，物质平衡就出现得不合时机，发达经济可以置之不理。事实上，物质平衡的理论是正确的，是显而易见的真理。
然而，这仅仅是中国科学评估发展的第一步。热力学第二定律表述为，无论何种转化，要是考虑周围情况（如环境），转化结果使能量削减，也就是物理中提到的无序、混乱和高熵。清华大学环境科学和工程系石磊教授和他的研究生参观了农村地区的铁高炉。农村地区铁高炉每年为国家产铁3.5亿吨。产出的经济价值让企业受益，但是，同时也产生了大量有害的热气、蒸汽和固体物，它们对远近社区产生了不可避免的影响，现在已延伸到中国内部地区，以及朝鲜半岛、日本甚至美洲。能量流的轨迹，以及其他更具体的形式如有效能和熵，都指向了效率，形成了循环经济的原则——减量化、再利用和再循环。
北京师范大学化学院的方德彩教授运用了创新的物质成分分析方法，设计出合适形状和功能的分子来实现人体组织细胞的对接和修复。这种方法同时也可用于工程建设，它可以用来设计拥有独特性质的物质分子。这种方法是由多伦多麦克马斯特大学的Richard Bader教授发明的，方教授正是师从贝得（Bader）教授门下。2007年，他的最新发现是，运用现代计算机的速度可以赋予该方法将分子间图像放大或缩小的潜力，比如冶炼成铁的铁矿石分子，那么从宏观角度看，即从地区、国家和全球的角度来看高炉中的铁矿石分子，它就是生产中的污染。这种铁矿石分子的三维轮廓图（2个铁原子与3个氧原子相互重叠）说明了如何才能有效地破坏分子间力来获得纯铁并释放氧气。与延续了几千年的古老炼铁方法（即盲目地将铁矿石加热到1600度的过程中，氧与碳结合释放出二氧化碳）相比，运用这种观点进行低温冶炼也是可行的。作为一种模拟，这种极小的科学力量无需动用太多力量就能直接产生同样的效果。Tim Sylow，主管澳大利亚必和必拓集团（世界最大矿业集团之一）的全球铁矿石营销，并且具有高炉工程和热动力学背景的专家，在清华大学的一次革新研究会议上宣称，这一技术将是工业史上的圣杯。
这些概念将科学的严密性带入了环境正负外部性的定价当中。物质平衡能计算出精确数量的同时，熵分析和现代化学可以计算出损害的严重程度，它们不是为了处罚污染行为而猜测罚金，或者随意指定一个废物交易的价格。客观结果类似于司机酒精测试，而不是猜测、掩藏和直接的否定。
回顾欧洲工业革命以来250年的经济发展历程以及相关的经济学解释，所得到的绝对结论是微观经济对宏观经济并没有帮助。也就是说对于个人或公司而言，有利可图的并不是最适合整个国家或全球经济。就像一门手艺，能一边在自家院内刺激产品生产，一边却在别人的后院堆放垃圾。全面发展的要求目前已经进入中国共产党党章修正草案之中。随着全过程核算，熵分析以及分子图谱定位的新一轮科学思潮的出现，将可以从微观原子水平直到全球环境层次来看工业的进展，而且进展会越来越多。具有讽刺意义的是，从现代科学的角度，我们认为中国已经处于理想状态很长时间——就是人类活动与自然和谐相处的状态。
熵——从工程学到经济学
熵是科学中的重要概念，它区分了自发（自然）活动与人为活动或引发的活动。某些活动似乎否定了这条规则，但是科学可以解释，部分环境中发生逆熵是可能的，但是作为整体是不可能发生的。
这张图来自Atkins的经典教科书《化学原理》，该图表明，在屏幕背后，工程方法如何解决看似否定熵规则的自发活动。
其在经济学中应用广泛。比如，雨是天然的，但是灌溉需要工程，这通常被认可而且工程确实耗费了成本。然而，随着发展压力的增大，企业和国家强调产品的生产，从而倾向于隐藏背后的成本。在极端例子中，拉斯维加斯壮观的喷泉，或者号称“零排放”的汽车都只是在部分的状况下成立，因为作为整体，科学表明净熵必然不可避免地增加。有些事情发生在视野之外。电就是一个鲜明的例子，它为城市提供照明和运作，提供了房间中的空调。但是远在城市之外，产生电能的电站所产生的熵，比转化于电梯运行及其它城市运行活动的熵要多。熵是一个科学可测量的实体，而数学从不说谎。
简历
壮歌德博士(Dr. John Coulter)，早年获澳大利亚Griffith大学亚洲经济发展学士学位、澳大利亚国立大学数量经济学硕士学位，1991年获Griffith大学经济发展博士学位，专攻中国经济与环境问题，是国际生态经济学会创始人之一。